New Philosopherの Issue 36 - June/August 2022 の目次

The Fates – Moirai to the Greeks and Parcae to the Romans – were three sisters in Greek and Roman mythology who handled a length of thread that represented each and every life: the ‘thread of destiny’. Through each thread they controlled the destinies of mortals and gods alike, ensuring that lives were led according to the laws of the universe. Clotho would spin the thread; Lachesis would determine the length of and amount of luck in a life; and Atropos would cut it with her shears to bring it to an end. We humans are quite fond the idea of certainty, be it of our past, present, or future; of knowing what comes next. But, in the end, the only real certainty we have is that Atropos will wield…

DBC Pierre DBC Pierre won the Booker Prize for his debut novel Vernon God Little, which was also awarded the Whitbread First Novel Award in 2003 – the first time the two awards had been granted to the same book. Pierre is also the author of Ludmilla’s Broken English, Lights out in Wonderland, a book of short stories, and a novella, Breakfast with the Borgias. He was awarded the James Joyce Award from the Literary and Historical Society of University College Dublin. Mariana Alessandri Mariana Alessandri is Associate Professor of Philosophy at the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley. She has written for The New York Times, Philosophy Today, Womankind magazine, Times Higher Education, Chronicle of Higher Education, and many academic journals. Alessandri is the author of the forthcoming book,…

Carroll Gardens, the neighbourhood where I live in Brooklyn, is famous for two things: Italian food and annual Halloween decorations. One historic brownstone sticks out from the others: each October its owners adorn the exterior of the building with a plethora of lurid, fantastical furnishings. There’s a skeleton dangling in a cage. A bloody baby, its head pulled off, in a pram. A corpse hanging by its neck from an upstairs window. A zombie girl on a swing. And, most gruesome of all, a ‘prisoner’ in an orange jumpsuit in an electric chair, his eyes squeezed shut in pain, his mouth set in a tight grimace. A mechanism makes his limbs and body shake. Halloween has its origins in paganism: it was believed that during Samhain, the Celtic new year,…

/ʌnˈsəːtnti/ noun: 1. The state of being uncertain (‘times of uncertainty and danger’); 2. lack of certainty or doubt; 3. [usually uncertainties] Something that is uncertain or that causes one to feel uncertain (‘financial uncertainties’). Origin: Middle English ‘uncerteynte’- c. 1300, “of indeterminate time or occurrence,” fromun- “not” +certain(adj.). Meaning “not fully confident” is recorded from late 14c. Source: Oxford English Dictionary and Collins Dictionary…

When it comes to death, it is as if we are walking backwards through a minefield.There aren’t that many mines in the field, but there are more of them the further you go into that field. At the furthest point they are so close together that hardly anyone gets beyond them, and then there are even more densely planted mines. Some people are fortunate enough to step directly on a mine that kills them instantly thus avoiding the nasty business of dying - moving straight from active life to death. Tough for those around them, but a painless exit for the individuals. The less fortunate are maimed to a greater or lesser degree and struggle on in pain backwards through the field, perhaps helped by their friends, and by doctors…

“The quest for certainty blocks the search for meaning. Uncertainty is the very condition to impel man to unfold his powers.” Erich Fromm “A woman’s guess is much more accurate than a man’s certainty.” Rudyard Kipling “Who knows whether the gods will add to-morrow to the present hour?” Horace “If you tried to doubt everything you would not get as far as doubting anything.” Ludwig Wittgenstein “Certainty generally is illusion, and repose is not the destiny of man.” Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr “Our doubts are traitors.” — William Shakespeare “I ever held worse than all certitude to know not what the worst ahead might be.” Algernon Charles Swinburne “When the mind is in a state of uncertainty the smallest impulse directs it to either side.” Terence…

Stuart Vyse is a behavioural scientist, teacher, and writer. He is a columnist with Skeptical Inquirer magazine and has written for the Observer, The Atlantic, and Time. He is the author of Believing in Magic, which won the William James Book Award; Going Broke; Superstition; and The Uses of Delusion. As an expert on superstition and irrational behaviour, he has been quoted in The New York Times, the Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, and has appeared on CBS, CNN, and PBS NewsHour. Zan Boag: How would you define certainty? Stuart Vyse: As humans, certainty isn’t something we have a lot of. Obviously, there are mathematical definitions of certainty and uncertainty, but psychologically, what matters is that you are able to predict and count on things happening in your world…

Many of us desire certainty. We don’t just want to believe, or even have fairly or very good grounds for believing. We want more still: cast-iron certainty. Our craving for certainty can make us vulnerable to manipulation and even brainwashing. As scientist Kathleen Taylor points out, cults typically exploit the discomfort we feel when we experience uncertainty. By providing a simple set of certainties that cover and explain everything, and constantly reminding us of the chaos and uncertainties that lie outside, political and religious cultists can make their belief systems increasingly attractive, and increasingly difficult to leave. As Taylor wrote in The Guardian, “The contrast between the complicated, fragmented muddle of the unbeliever’s life and the pure simplicity of true belief is often emphasised by ideologues who understand the power…

Superstition: A Very Short Introduction Stuart Vyse Systems of belief The concept of superstition has been with us for millennia, and yet today it has no agreed-upon meaning. We tend to know it when we see it – as in the examples above. If it carries a single enduring connotation, it is one of disapproval. From almost the very beginning, it was not a compliment to call someone superstitious. Throughout its long history, superstition has been a transactional concept with no fixed meaning of its own except in contrast to some other, more accepted worldview. As governments and systems of belief have changed, so have the targets of the label. As a result, the history of superstition is largely the story of a word and the different ways it has…

The waiting game Everyone – mums, therapists, rock stars – says the waiting is the hardest part. It turns out there is a way to “wait well”, researchers say. People who feel anxious or pessimistic or who ruminate while awaiting news fare better than others when it finally arrives, the researchers say.They’re more prepared for bad news and more excited about good news. wsj.com/articles/ how-to-manage-along-wait-for-news-1495465180 Devil’s dictionary CARTESIAN, adj. Relating to Descartes, a famous philosopher, author of the celebrated dictum, Cogito ergo sum – whereby he was pleased to suppose he demonstrated the reality of human existence.The dictum might be improved, however, thus: Cogito cogito ergo cogito sum – “I think that I think, therefore I think that I am”; as close an approach to certainty as any philosopher has…

Despite being one of the most popular philosophical movements of the last century, Existentialism is famously hard to define as a theory. In popular imagination, Existentialism has become associated more with a series of philosophical moods and attitudes, such as ‘despair’, ‘bad faith’, ‘anticipatory resoluteness’, and, most commonly, ‘angst’. That last concept passes through a number of hands and languages, from Kierkegaard’s angest to Heidegger’s angst and Sartre’s l’angoisse. It’s often translated ‘anxiety’, ‘dread’, or ‘anguish’, but ‘angst’ avoids any unhelpful medical connotations. All these thinkers, despite their significant philosophical and religious differences, see angst as linked not just to the uncertainty of the future, but to the uncertainty of human behaviour. Existential angst is not simply anxiety about what could happen, but anxiety over what we might do ourselves.…

In 2020, when asked, “What feeling best describe your current emotional status?”, ‘uncertainty’ was the most common emotional sentiment felt by European citizens, mentioned by 50% of respondents. In the game Battleship, the probability ranges from about a 20% chance of hitting an opponent’s ship when you pick a spot in the centre of the board to 8% in the corner. In chess, aside from Kings, which can’t be taken, the end Pawns have the highest survival rate at 66%-73%. Rooks also tend to be hardy, with a 55% survival rate. The country with the highest life expectancy in the world is Monaco, at 86.8 years (up from 62.2 years in 1950). The lowest is the Central African Republic, at 53.3 years (up from 31.8 years in 1950). In the…

Anxiety disorders are the most common type of mental disorders in the US. But a simple diagnosis of generalised anxiety disorder may not capture the specifics of what bothers some people. A subgroup of anxiety sufferers may experience extreme distress when confronting the inherent uncertainties that turn up in any life circumstance, whether helping a relative with a severe illness or choosing a new route to work that is safe and easy to navigate. Such people may respond to their feelings by leaving nothing to chance. At work, they appear polished and prepared when giving a presentation because they consider every question that could be posed by colleagues beforehand and memorise possible answers in the days leading up to a meeting. Still, all of the prep work may do little…

To be, or not to be, that is the question: Whether ‘tis nobler in the mind to suffer The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, Or to take arms against a sea of troubles And by opposing end them. To die — to sleep, No more; and by a sleep to say we end The heart-ache and the thousand natural shocks That flesh is heir to: ‘tis a consummation Devoutly to be wish’d. To die, to sleep; To sleep, perchance to dream — ay, there’s the rub: For in that sleep of death what dreams may come, When we have shuffled off this mortal coil, Must give us pause — there’s the respect That makes calamity of so long life. For who would bear the whips and scorns of time,…

“Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is an absurd one.” Voltaire “If you don’t like the weather, wait a minute.” Anonymous “That’s the thing about life: you can do what you do but in the end, some things remain stubbornly outside your control.” W. I. B. Beveridge “In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.” Benjamin Franklin “He is no wise man that will quit a certainty for an uncertainty.” Samuel Johnson “It is certain because it is impossible.” Tertullian “If a man will begin with certainties, he shall end with doubts.” Francis Bacon “Doubt is brother-devil to Despair.” John Boyle O’Reilly “Not to be absolutely certain is, I think, one of the essential things in rationality.” Bertrand Russell “Ah, what a…

The Philosopher Plato ~428 – 348 BCE Philosopher Kings Until philosophers are Kings, or the kings and princes of this world have the spirit and power of philosophy, and political greatness and wisdom meet in one, and those commoner natures who pursue either to the exclusion of the other are compelled to stand aside, cities will never have rest from their evils, no, nor the human race, as I believe – and then only will this our State have a possibility of life and behold the light of day. The Philosopher of Science Karl Popper 1902 – 1994 To err is human Knowledge consists in the search for truth – the search for objectively true, explanatory theories. It is not the search for certainty. To err is human.…

Kate Sweeny is Professor of Psychology and Teresa and Byron Pollitt Endowed Term Chair at the University of California, Riverside, where she runs the Life Events Lab. She received her B.S. in 2002 from Furman University and her M.S. in 2003 and Ph.D. in 2008 from the University of Florida where she studied social psychology with Dr James Shepperd. Her research examines two broad questions. First, how do people cope with acute and stressful moments of uncertainty, like the wait for important news? Second, how should doctors talk to their patients? To answer these questions, Professor Sweeny has studied law graduates awaiting news about the bar exam, patients awaiting biopsy results, researchers awaiting manuscript decisions, surgeons talking to their adult patients, and asthma specialists talking to paediatric patients, among many…

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In some corners of the internet, you’ll find people sharing and comparing photos of their ‘bug-out bags’. These are backpacks or duffle bags stuffed full of things their owners believe they’ll need in an emergency, from water and bandages to flares and gas masks. Keeping such a bag packed sounds quite prudent, especially for people who live in areas prone to flood or wildfire, or who may need to escape an unsafe environment. Disaster can strike anytime, so it’s good to be prepared. However, many of these bags are clearly built around survivalist fantasies of rugged self-reliance, rather than real-life emergencies. (The suspiciously high prevalence of weapons is a giveaway. You rarely need to shoot a forest fire). As one online wit pointed out, when the time comes that you…

“Now, what I want is, Facts.” So begins Charles Dickens’ Hard Times, with the words of Thomas Gradgrind, a semi-retired merchant and would-be politician. Gradgrind, who is also a school reformer, is speaking to the young pupils at his school about his pedagogical philosophy, which amounts to Facts, not Nonsense, where the latter is rather all-inclusive: folk tales, Twinkle Twinkle Little Star, free will, a morality based on something other than self-interest – all Nonsense. Published in 1854, Hard Times was Dickens’ biting satire of those who used “figures and averages, and nothing else”. Those people were the representatives of what Dickens called “the wickedest and most enormous vice of this time” – namely, the utilitarian philosophy of the late Jeremy Bentham and his followers, which was at that time…

Noughts and crosses – also known as tic-tac-toe – isn’t a very interesting game. To play it, you draw a three-by-three grid, then take it in turns with another player to fill in a square with your mark: X or O. The winner is the first person to get three in a row. If you know what you’re doing, however, this should never happen. So long as nobody makes a mistake, the result will always be a draw. I know this because noughts and crosses is a ‘solved game’: one whose outcome can correctly be predicted at every stage, so long as both players play perfectly. It’s simple enough that most children can do so by the age of six. Indeed, the lesson that it can’t be won is part…

Sir David Spiegelhalter has been Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at the University of Cambridge since October 2007. His background is in medical statistics, with an emphasis on Bayesian methods: his MRC team developed the BUGS software which has become the primary platform for applying modern Bayesian analysis using simulation technology. He has worked on clinical trials and drug safety and consulted and taught in a number of pharmaceutical companies, and also collaborates on developing methods for health technology assessment applicable to organisations such as NICE. His interest in performance monitoring led to his being asked to lead the statistical team in the Bristol Royal Inf irmary Inquiry, and he also gave evidence to the Shipman Inquiry. In his post he leads a small team which attempts…

The 19th century Scottish novelist, Robert Louis Stevenson, once wrote a charming little article in praise of idleness. The problem was, he was a great fan of hard work. But he sidestepped the apparent contradiction with a neat analogy: to talk of the excitements of travel isn’t a denial of the love of home. To enthuse about loafing, dawdling, and lounging away an afternoon, isn’t to ignore the obvious benefits of strenuous application. So too with uncertainty: of course we want and need security, so far as it can reasonably be found, in our lives. But there are ways in which we might need, and even relish, uncertainty as well. The issue of how uncertainty can serve us well arises at the very start of philosophy in the persona of…

No matter what people say about pandemic doomscrolling or the abundance of negativity in the news, a good pessimist is still hard to find. One who, like the Roman Stoic Seneca, would tell you that life is, at bottom, a storm; one who, like the Greek Stoic Epictetus, was hyper-aware of death and highly invested in keeping it at the topmost of our minds; one who, like the Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius, took for granted that the day brings with it a litany of ills, ranging from the inconvenient to the torturous. A good pessimist acknowledges life’s imminent pain and its relentless uncertainty. Stoics from Zeno of Citium (circa 300 BCE) to Marcus Aurelius (circa 170 CE) were certain of one thing: humans suffer and die. They did not avert…

If all mankind minus one, were of one opinion, and only one person were of the contrary opinion, mankind would be no more justified in silencing that one person, than he, if he had the power, would be justified in silencing mankind. But the peculiar evil of silencing the expression of an opinion is, that it is robbing the human race; posterity as well as the existing generation; those who dissent from the opinion, still more than those who hold it. If the opinion is right, they are deprived of the opportunity of exchanging error for truth: if wrong, they lose, what is almost as great a benefit, the clearer perception and livelier impression of truth, produced by its collision with error. First: the opinion which it is attempted to…

1. If you do know that here is one hand, we’ll grant you all the rest. When one says that such and such a proposition can’t be proved, of course that does not mean that it can’t be derived from other propositions; any proposition can be derived from other ones. But they may be no more certain than it is itself. (On this a curious remark by H.Newman.) 2. From its seeming to me – or to everyone – to be so, it doesn’t follow that it is so. What we can ask is whether it can make sense to doubt it. 3. If e.g. someone says “I don’t know if there’s a hand here” he might be told “Look closer”. – This possibility of satisfying oneself is part of…